Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
